Iran made headlines this week by announcing it would keep the Strait of Hormuz open to vessels from "non-hostile" nations — a move markets initially read as a pressure valve for oil supply. Conventional wisdom said tanker traffic would surge. Crude futures dipped.

Conventional wisdom was wrong.

Using hyperspectral satellite imaging combined with AI-driven vessel tracking, our team at Space for Finance monitored actual ship movements through the strait in real time — including vessels running dark with AIS transponders switched off.

The findings are striking: in the past 24 hours, only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz. That is a 50% drop compared to the two preceding days, when — despite the geopolitical tension — a flow of tankers was quietly slipping through with their tracking systems disabled.

In short, the headline "Hormuz is open" has not translated into oil actually moving.

With physical supply still effectively choked and the shadow fleet pulling back sharply, the near-term relief traders were pricing in looks increasingly premature. If this traffic pattern holds, crude prices are not heading lower — they could be heading toward $120 a barrel.

The satellites don't lie. The market may not yet be listening.